Tom Graves

Spent much of the past couple of days getting overly-involved in two great threads on Venessa Miemis‘ ‘Emergent by Design‘ blog:

• Social Capital is not the same as Whuffie
• What could the future of money look like?

The first thread started with a very necessary attempt to distinguish between social-capital and reputation-based ‘currencies’ such as Cory Doctorow’s imaginary ‘Whuffie‘ (as described in his sci-fi novel “Down and Out in the Magic Kingdom” – the ‘magic kingdom’ being Disneyland, of course ). The key distinction that Venessa drew – and I think she’s right – is that social-capital is collective, a ‘network effect’ of the social context, whereas reputation is an attribute within the frame of that social-network, typically attached or attributed to the individual: in other words, they’re not the same, and should definitely not be treated as being the same.

This lead to the second thread, about ‘the future of money’, because much of the discussion in the ‘Whuffie’ thread was about the supposed need for some kind of ‘alternative currency’. (Clearly some people in the thread had hoped that ‘Whuffie’ would be it, but despite the efforts of well-meant initiatives such as The Whuffie Bank, it became evident quite quickly that it wouldn’t and couldn’t work in a ‘currency-like’ way.) There was – and at present, still is – a lot of discussion about various ‘currency-like’ proposals, such as TimeBanks, ITEX cashless payment, ‘Quids’ alternate-currency, and so on.

But what I found immensely frustrating was that almost none of them were thinking in true economic terms – and I wasn’t very popular for pointing out this unfortunate fact. Instead of enquiring what an economy is, what it needs to do, what purpose it serves, and so on – what would seem to be essential first-principles concerns about the context – they’d all assumed automatically, without question, that some kind of currency was ‘the answer’, and hence rushed off to create it. In other words, exactly the same mistake as far too many IT-folks: “here’s the solution – how can we force your problem to fit it?”

Ready? Fire!!! … aim…?

oops…

Yeah… really frustrating…

No-one with any sense would doubt that there are serious problems with the present ‘money-economy’ – not so much ’serious problems’ as ‘close to catastrophic failure’, in fact. Everyone in that conversation recognised this – which is why they were pushing so hard for alternatives. But the catch was that none of the alternatives actually resolved the core reasons why a money-economy won’t work; most of the proposed ’solutions’ not only replicated those problems, but actually made some of them worse. What was so frustrating was that in each case it took no more than a couple of minutes’ analysis not only to show that it wouldn’t work, but why it wouldn’t work. Yet no-one, it seemed, wanted to hear this: instead, off they want, charging off down their respective blind-alleys in the blind certainty that they’d found ‘the solution’.

What’s wrong with money, then? Short answer is: a lot. To give just a few examples:

• It only deals with point-to-point transactions, not network-effects – especially at a societal level.
• It’s designed to work with ‘alienable’ physical objects, but now no longer has any actual anchor in the real world – instead, we have literally trillions of supposed ‘money’ in imaginary ‘derivatives’ sloshing around the globe.
• It’s very easy to ‘game’ via artificially-constructed price/value mismatches.
• The implied ‘gravitation’ structure of money-based capital means that it tends to create ‘winner-takes-all’ accumulations – exacerbating social imbalances, often in the extreme, requiring separate action to try to redress the balance.
• Attempts to link ‘intellectual property’ into the money-system have resulted in a system which purports to match finite ‘alienable’ entities (physical ‘things’) with potentially-infinite ‘non-alienable’ entities (information) – which by definition cannot balance.
• Many organisations – particularly banks – are legally ‘entitled’ to invent money from nowhere, in effect assigning themselves an ever-increasing share of the society’s resources.
• A currency, by definition, relies on trust in the institutions that manage that currency, which in this case is the banks – yet much of that trust has been lost, and at present remains at an all-time low (hence the strong societal interest in options for ‘alternative currencies’).
• There are no built-in mechanisms to manage assignment of resources to those ‘outside’ of the monetary exchange-system (particularly children, parents, elderly, disabled and their carers, but also artists, scientists, thinkers, futurists, ‘creatives’ of any kind) – these stakeholders can only be served by ‘external’ mechanisms such as taxation (which are clunky and kludge-ridden at best), or by forcing them to do work within the money-economy (which means that their actual needed work can no longer be done).
• There is a very strong tendency towards short-termism.
• There is a very strong tendency to try to force everything into a crude, ludicrously-simplistic ‘double-entry life-keeping’.
• There is a very strong tendency to assume that ‘value’ exists only in monetary terms, as ‘valuations’ of ‘resources’ – hence, for example, a forest supposedly has no value until it is cut down, a mountain has no value until mined for its minerals, and so on.
• There is a very strong tendency to assume that anything which cannot be counted and ‘valued’ in monetary terms either does not matter or does not exist.

The societal impacts of these problems are rapidly approaching catastrophic levels. Yet none of the proposed ‘alternative currencies’ tackle more than a minute fraction of that list: most offer at best a localised kludge that might address a couple of issues whilst creating several more.

Let’s be blunt about this: the present system does not work. It actually never has – and that’s not surprising, because it was only ever intended to deal with point-to-point ‘trade’-transactions between fairly large groups (tribes, communities etc), hence it’s bit unfair to expect it to be able to run the entirety of an economy. But to create something that does work, we do need to go right back up to the level of the entire economy, and work our way back down from there. Which, yes, might – might – include some kind of ‘currency’ to tackle specific types of transactions: but not as the core of the economy itself.

This is actually no different from any other whole-of-enterprise architecture. (The only distinction is that it’s an ‘enterprise’ at the scale of an entire society, but that’s all.) So we would use the same overall approach:

• Who (and/or what) are the stakeholders in this enterprise?
• What are the core values? What is ‘value’ in this context? What is valued, and by whom? In other words, what determines ‘appropriate’ in this enterprise?
• What are the assets, functions, locations, events, capabilities and decisions within this enterprise? – in other words, the resources of the enterprise that need to be managed, distributed, shared and used in the most appropriate manner.
• What are the value-propositions that this enterprise needs to offer to and with its stakeholders?
• What mechanisms and responsibilities would be needed to create, deliver and monitor those value-propositions?
• What governance would be needed to ensure that all activities within the enterprise are optimised to be ‘on purpose’?
• …and so on.

To me, every attempt at a currency will inherently fail because it cannot take network-effects into account: by its nature, a currency is a mechanism for governance of point-to-point transactions, without any direct means to link to whole-of-system impacts. So I honestly believe that all of these attempts at ‘alternative currencies’ are a waste of time: we should be far better served by putting the same effort into understanding how an economy actually works.

And the key to that, to my mind, comes down to perhaps the scariest fact of all: there are no rights. ‘Rights’ are a social fiction; but the mutual, interlocking responsibilities that underpin those purported ‘rights’ are a social reality. If we want those purported ‘rights’, where we need to start is with creating a better understanding the ways in which those real responsibilities need to interlock: a focus on ‘rights’, like a focus on ‘currency’, is at best an unhelpful distraction from this requirement.

Where this gets gets scarier still is that our entire present economic model is based on a concept of ‘right of possession’ – hence a ‘right to personal property’. But there are no rights: only responsibilities are real. And in a network, there is no ‘personal’: only the network is real. Right at the fundamentals of economics, ‘personal property’ is just another fiction – and a very dangerous fiction at that. Yet personal responsibilities for societal resources – the appropriate management, maintenance and use of those resources – are real. And as with ‘rights’, those interlocking responsibilities result in something that looks almost exactly the same as ‘personal property’ – but we now know how we get there, via those responsibilities.

If we turn it this way round, we end up with something that looks very similar to what we have at present: but it resolves all of the structural flaws of a ‘money-type’ economy, and we also know exactly how we get there.

Once we know that that’s what we need to aim for, then we can start talking about ‘intermediate currencies’ and the rest, as part of a transitional ‘roadmap’ towards that more workable model. But those ‘alternative currencies’ are only an intermediate step, and we don’t start from there.

That’s what would change these sad attempts at ‘Ready? Fire! Aim…’ into a more viable ‘Ready? Aim? Fire!’ – and rekindle the fire in our social economy.

(This series of posts explores a concept of ‘problem-space’ versus ’solution-space’ which in part demonstrates alternative uses and interpretations of the Simple / Complicated / Complex / Chaotic categorisation originally described in the Cynefin diagram. It must be emphasised that this is not about the Cynefin Framework; for details on Cynefin, please contact Cognitive Edge.)

This post represents yet another attempt to describe certain fundamental differences in approach from twf (aka ‘That Welsh Framework‘ – so-called because we’re no longer allowed to use its official name at all) and to find an alternative term that might reduce the ongoing friction in that quarter.

To do this, we need to go right back to first-principles: the core concept of context-space, which eventually leads us to context-space mapping.

(Another long-ish post: more after the ‘Read more…’ link.)

Read more…

(This series of posts explores alternate uses of the Simple/ Complicated / Complex / Chaotic categorisation originally described in the Cynefin diagram. This discussion is not about the formal Cynefin Framework; for details on the Cynefin framework proper, please contact Cognitive Edge. The term ‘beyond-Cynefin’ is solely a placeholder to indicate this separation of concerns.)

Back to theory again – apologies… – following on from comments on the previous posts, especially ‘On meta-methodology‘.

The aim of this post is to try to create a bit more clarity around the notion of ‘problem-space’ versus ’solution-space’. To do this, I’ll draw on a variety of sources, ranging from dowsing to enterprise-architecture, Sigurd Rinde’s work on ‘barely-repeatable processes’, activity/response-models such as OODA and PDCA, and much more besides.

Will again be long, hence more after the ‘Read more…’ link.

Read more…

(This is part of an ongoing series that explores alternate uses of a generic conceptual categorisation originally described in the well-known Cynefin diagram. This discussion is not about the formal Cynefin Framework; for details on the definition and use of the Cynefin framework proper, please contact Dave Snowden at Cognitive Edge. The term ‘beyond-Cynefin’ is here used solely as a placeholder to indicate this separation of interests.)

Here’s another collection of ‘Cynefin-like’ cross-maps that I’ve found useful for sensemaking in enterprise-architecture and related work:

• ISO-9000 quality-model
• Skill-levels
• Automated versus manual processes
• Asset-types
• Data, information, knowledge, wisdom

More details after the ‘Read more…’ link.

Read more…

(This is part of an ongoing series that explores alternate uses of a generic conceptual categorisation originally described in the well-known Cynefin diagram. This discussion is not about the formal Cynefin Framework; for details on the definition and use of the Cynefin framework proper, please contact Dave Snowden at Cognitive Edge. The term ‘beyond-Cynefin’ is here used solely as a placeholder to indicate this separation of interests.)

Another collection of ‘Cynefin-like’ cross-maps that I’ve found useful in various aspects of my enterprise-architecture work:

• Repeatability and ‘truth’
• Marketing versus sales
• The ‘Plan / Do / Check / Act’ cycle

More details after the ‘Read more…’ link.

Read more…

(This is part of an ongoing series that explores alternate uses of a generic conceptual categorisation originally described in the well-known Cynefin diagram. It should be emphasised that this discussion is not about the Cynefin Framework, which is a distinct body of practices based on scientific research. For details on the definition and use of the Cynefin framework proper, please contact Dave Snowden at Cognitive Edge. As this broader usage of the categorisation does not yet have a specific name, the term ‘beyond-Cynefin’ is here used solely as a temporary placeholder to indicate this separation of interests.)

‘Cynefin-like’ cross-maps

I first started using what we could describe as ‘Cynefin-like’ models several decades ago, such as in my book Inventing Reality (first published 1986, current print-edition available here). I’ve found them immensely valuable in a very wide range of applications, especially in disciplines such as enterprise-architecture that necessarily cover the entire scope of a context. The key to its usefulness is that the model’s categorisation provides a consistent base-map for all manner of cross-maps, each of which provides new insights about the context.

Typical characteristics of a ‘Cynefin-style’ base-map include:

• universality: the model purports to cover the entire scope of a given context
• sensemaking: the purpose of the model is to guide sensemaking and decision-support, rather than (for example) design and implementation of a specific ’solution’
• simple partitioning: the model divides the context into a small number (typically 4-5) of regions or ‘domains’ (e.g. the Cynefin set of ‘Simple’, ‘Complicated’, ‘Complex’ and ‘Chaotic’), and often including a ‘none-of-the-above’ region (e.g. the Cynefin central region of ‘Disorder’)
• fluid boundaries: the boundaries between regions are not rigidly fixed (as they are in e.g. a two-axis matrix), and may be allowed to move, blur and/or be somewhat porous
• usage-dependent layout: the layout of the model may not be semantically significant (as it is in e.g. a two-axis matrix) – layouts are often two-dimensional, but may be single-dimension horizontal or vertical, or multi-dimensional such as the four-axis/three-dimension tetradian

(More after the ‘Read more…’ link.)

Read more…

(This is part of an ongoing series that attempts to resolve problems in (mis)interpretation of the Cynefin framework, and in particular the commonly-used Cynefin diagram. For the correct interpretation and use of the Cynefin framework and Cynefin techniques, please contact Dave Snowden at Cognitive Edge.)

The standard Cynefin diagram is as follows:

Diagram by Dave Snowden, Cognitive Edge (image: public domain)

As the Wikipedia article states, “The model provides a taxonomy that guides what sort of explanations and/or solutions may apply.” Unfortunately, this is a generic model that lends itself to multiple interpretations, only one of which is ‘correct’ Cynefin. There are also multiple uses of the concepts and conceptual space summarised in the model’s taxonomy and pathways, of which, again, only a specific subset may legitimately be described as Cynefin.

It is therefore important to state that what follows is not ‘Cynefin’, yet necessarily uses what is in essence much the same taxonomy (see ‘Framework role and purpose’ and ‘Similarities to Cynefin’ in the previous post ‘Solution-space: beyond Cynefin?‘).

The central theme in this ‘not-Cynefin’ framework is the concept of ‘problem-space’ and ’solution-space’.

Problem-space is the context of the problem. Part of this is repeatability, or perceived cause-effect relationships, which can usefully be mapped using the same ‘Cynefin’ taxonomy:

• Simple: very high perceived repeatability, in accordance with simple linear cause-effect rules
• Complicated: linear (repeatable) cause-effect relationships, but may involve multiple factors, delays and feedback-loops
• Complex: cause-effect relationships are context-dependent – for example, where the effect itself becomes the cause
• Chaotic: no perceived cause-effect relationships

(The central region of ‘Disorder‘ is always ‘chaotic’, by definition, because it is the starting-point before any cause-effect relationships can be determined; the Chaotic-domain of problem-space applies where some or all of the problem continues to show no perceivable cause-effect relationships.)

Solution-space is the context and characteristics of the solution – i.e. the methods used to resolve the perceived problem. This too can be usefully mapped using the same taxonomy:

• Simple: the solution uses rules based on linear cause-effect logic
• Complicated: the solution uses analytic algorithms allowing for feedback, delays, etc, but are ultimately based on linear cause-effect logic
• Complex: the solution uses context-sensitive heuristics, guidelines and iterative re-assessment, in which the problem is continually ‘re-solved’ rather than ’solved’
• Chaotic: the solution uses principles to guide creation of uniquely context-dependent results

(Note: these are only one-line summaries, not formal definitions!)

The process of finding an appropriate solution to a specified problem can be mapped as a pathway across solution-space. To succeed (i.e. to be effective), the ultimately-selected solution(s) must map appropriately to the context of the problem in problem-space. Note that although in some cases a problem may be situated in just one specific location in problem-space, it is more common for it to occupy a region or even to have components that spread out across multiple regions. For example, a context might be mostly resolved by a rules-based automated process (Simple) but also ’special cases’ that may need to be ‘escalated’ to an algorithmic system (Complicated), a manual review (Complex) or specialist expertise (Chaotic) for a ‘one-off’ incident. The overall solution must resolve all components in problem-space.

The core concept in the use of this framework is recursive meta-methodology. For example:

• a method in solution-space acts on the problem in problem-space
• a methodology selects an appropriate method
• a meta-methodology selects an appropriate methodology
• a meta-meta-methodology selects an appropriate meta-methodology

…and so on. A methodology is a path within solution-space; a meta-methodology is a path in another layer of solution-space; in effect, the layers may be nested indefinitely, but must ultimately all resolve to a set of methods that address the actual problem in problem-space.

The ultimate aim of all of this is to find methods that are appropriate and effective for any given problem, in any business context (such as my primary field of enterprise-architecture), or in any other field, as required.

I’ll stop here for now, but will give more explanation and illustrative examples in later posts in this series.

Previous posts in this series:

• ‘Complexity, chaos and enterprise-architecture‘
• ‘More on chaos and Cynefin‘
• ‘Alternatives to the ‘Cynefin’ term, please?‘
• ‘Solution-space: beyond Cynefin?‘

The previous posts on ‘chaos and Cynefin’ were intended to contribute to an ongoing debate about how to use concepts from the published Cynefin framework and the like, and particularly to underpin a systematic exploration of what many Cynefin aficionados would describe as the ‘Chaotic domain’. It’s evident that there’s a real perceived need there, because overall I’ve so far had several hundred reads, several dozen re-Tweets (particularly via knowledge-management thought-leader David Gurteen and management-consultant Paul Jansen, for which many thanks), and a lot of constructive comments and feedback – all of which have been very helpful.

Unfortunately, as can be seen from his comments to those posts, one person who was definitely not happy about such ideas was the originator of Cynefin, Dave Snowden. So there’s evidently a major problem for us there.

What is clear is that, whether Dave likes it or not, a substantial community already uses Cynefin concepts and Cynefin terminology to describe a kind of meta-methodological ’solution-space’ within which various methods, methodologies and tactics can be situated, and their respective appropriateness for specific contexts can be assessed. What’s also clear is that, as far as Dave is concerned, we are no longer permitted to use the term ‘Cynefin’ for this ‘framework-that-occupies-much-the-same-conceptual-space-as-Cynefin’: we do need to find an alternative term for this.

In short, to describe that ’solution-space’, it seems we now need to move beyond Cynefin.

To do that, we need to identify:

• the role and purpose of this ‘not-Cynefin framework’
• how it draws from the published Cynefin framework and/or common usages of that framework
• how it extends and/or differs from the published Cynefin framework
• summarise how this framework would be used in practice

Once we’ve done that, we can perhaps start looking for an appropriate alternative term to describe it.

This is again going to be long, so I’ll stop here for a moment with a ‘Read more…’ link.

Read more…

Courtesy of a link by fellow enterprise-architect Sally Bean, I’ve just spent the past couple of hours viewing and then reviewing an online seminar on complexity by one of the thought-leaders on complexity-theory and practice, Dave Snowden:

From Induction to Abduction: a new approach to research and productive enquiry

This seminar will provide a summary of both the theory and practice of a new approach to research based on the large scale capture of self-interpreted micro-narrative.  The approach has been described as the first technique for distributed ethnography and has been developed over the past decade with project based funding from the US, UK and Singapore Governments in the context of risk assessment, horizon scanning, cultural mapping and weak signal detection.  It allows the linkage of research with knowledge management and impact based measurement.  Current projects involve measuring the impact of development projects in Africa, narrative based knowledge management for the US Army in Afghanistan and cultural mapping of various inner city communities within the UK.

The theoretical origins lie in the application of complex adaptive systems theory to social systems together with new understanding about the nature of human decision making from the cognitive sciences. The seminar will summarise the theory, but will also use a series of projects to combine theory with practice.  One of the goals is to create learning systems that work on continuous capture of material in the field as it happens linked with a capacity for feedback loops and sophisticated representations that allow people to learn by doing, building on the micro-narratives of day to day experience.  Narrative forms of knowledge lie between the experiential and the symbolic, allowing complex interactions and interventions in multiple social situations.

Abductive reasoning is, as Dave explains, “the logic of hunches”, and plays a key role in helping to develop understanding of how themes emerge in social contexts such as in business and elsewhere. It’s all fascinating stuff – very strongly recommended. The depth and versatility of the techniques will be a real eye-opener to anyone who hasn’t previously seen Dave’s work, and its applicability to whole-of-enterprise architecture and the like should be self-evident.

Read more…

Courtesy of a pointer by Mike Aikins (@AussiMike), came across a brilliant yet scary pair of videos about just how far ‘augmented reality’ might intrude into our lives in the relatively near future. The two videos were created by architecture-student Keiichi Matsuda:

The latter half of the 20th century saw the built environment merged with media space, and architecture taking on new roles related to branding, image and consumerism. Augmented reality may recontextualise the functions of consumerism and architecture, and change in the way in which we operate within it.

A film produced for my final year Masters in Architecture, part of a larger project about the social and architectural consequences of new media and augmented reality.

First, here’s the original version of the video: a very ordinary first-person view of someone in the kitchen of a small, cramped flat (presumably in Britain, judging by the power-sockets), engaged in the mundane task of making a cup of tea. (The reasons for the strange hand-gestures will become apparent in the second video.)

domestic robocop: original footage from Keiichi Matsuda on Vimeo.

And here’s the same footage with an overdose of ‘augmented reality’ applied…

Augmented (hyper)Reality: Domestic Robocop from Keiichi Matsuda on Vimeo.

I love the detail and precision here: the clock and kettle-timer ticking away, the banal music, the equally-banal recipe and voice-over instructions. And the subtly ironic sense of humour, too: one of the messages (at 01:00) asks plaintively “Anyone up for a RL [real-life] meeting this weekend?”; the departure from the kitchen is signalled (at 01:30) by a red-flashing warning on the ‘Liquid waste’ bar on the personal-status indicator.

I can see that augmented-reality does have its value, but this is definitely not a future I’d like to live in!